Dear trader,
Trump didn’t just announce new tariffs. He rewrote the global playbook—dropping what analysts are calling the biggest trade shock in modern history. Fitch pegs the new effective tariff rate at 22%, up from 2.5%—a level the US hasn’t seen since 1910. It’s a global economic reshuffling that brings both chaos and opportunity.
💥 The tariff breakdown
The new tariff structure is a two-punch combo:
- 10% blanket tariff on all imports starting April 5
- Country-specific tariffs from April 9, with China facing a staggering 54% rate
Markets wasted no time. The dollar index plunged 2%, its worst day since 2022. US tech stocks with Asian exposure got crushed. SPX500 fell sharply. Brent crude dropped over 6%, Bitcoin followed, and gold hit a new high before falling 3.5%. These moves scream uncertainty.
📈 What traders are watching
With tariffs now averaging ≈22%, the highest level in a century, markets are entering unfamiliar territory. But even in chaos, patterns start to form—and smart traders are already scanning the landscape.
Some are watching whether EURUSD continues to gain as sentiment sours on the dollar and rate cut expectations rise. Others are keeping a close eye on USDJPY, especially after the yen’s sharp rally—up 2.8% in a single day—as global risk aversion kicks in.
And as risk-off takes hold, bears may finally get their moment. Some traders are watching for further downside pressure on indices most tied to global growth—US100, SPX500, GER40, and JPN225 among them. Others are keeping an eye on defensive plays, though signals from gold remain mixed after sharp swings.
As Vineer Bhansali of Longtail Alpha put it: “Volatility should be higher and most people are going to be playing defense right now”.
📣 Zoom out: this is the kind of disruption markets remember for decades
The last time tariffs were this high, traders rode to the exchange in horse-drawn carriages—wearing top hats and monocles. That’s the scale we’re dealing with.
